On AI/AGI interpretation

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dusanmal

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Dec 12, 2022
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My background is Physics, particularly computer modeling and data analysis within it. That led me to become part of the technical side of Medical team creating real time fMRI imaging system for objective Autism diagnosis. Early on, in 2008 we realized that human abilities and standard computing fall short of what's needed for this purpose. Data is essentially reduced to many dimensional "movie" and visionary MDs, humans invented a way to look for peculiar neurochemistry patterns in this. While humans invented what needs to be done, our abilities and ordinary computing are not fit to the purpose. Creating AI able to learn and seek these patterns was the solution and as AI advances we advance. Hence, I am deep into AI research experience since 2008. From that viewpoint I'll address what I think is the main mistake in interpretation of modern AI by Steve and many others:
Yes, AI (as seen in above example) is powerful new tool that will impact humanity in enormous way. However, when there is something new and sellable snake oil salesmanship will appear. In case of AI it is the lie of AGI, very sellable lie. Problem with "strong AI" that these snake oil salesmans base their work on is that it is based on (provably wrong) assumption that if we just increase power and complexity, AGI will somehow emerge. Don't take my word but works of Nobel Prize winning Dr Penrose. AGI as originally defined, cognitive, self aware system requires new, noncomputable paradigm which can't Mathematically emerge from deterministic algorithmic based systems. Once we develop similarly powerful Quantum Computing, it is plausible we may indeed create AGI based on it.
Symbolically I'll describe it as Steve seeing indeed more and more powerful AI and assuming it can and will do "cognitive tasks" now or soon. (Steve mentions Chess, which we humans must play with cognition as our brains work like that but for machine it is just set of limited rules applied to finite board and finite pieces... due to it's different abilities that task is trivial calculation not cognition). Even more trivialized, snake oil salesman see symbolic bunny eating symbolic carrot and growing up. Hence, they claim, if we just grow bigger and more complex carrot it will at some point BECOME rabbit... Yes, baby carrot AI from 2008 have grown to normal size in recent past and in last few years it reached the size of a car. But, it is still a CARROT and nothing in this process will make it to become a rabbit (AGI). If anything we may be reaching situation where carrot structure won't hold for the purpose, like those gigantic Alaskan pumpkins that if grown too big collapse.
Snake oil salesman are noticing this too. Too much money got invested so they will not cry "the AGI has no clothes" but, they are preparing for such outcome. OpenAI and MS, leaders in this cabal have recently covered their bare behinds with the new "definition" of what AGI is! Based on what it can do? Demonstrated cognition and self awareness? No! New definition is "AGI is AI based system that can generate 100Bil$ (or more) in profits"... Sorry, changing the definition won't do for the real AI science.
Finally, we AI scientist know how it works. It is very powerful and complex automaton. There is NO rationale for its output, be it that we can make use of same automation to make belief ask it what was its reason. "Reason" is calculated in the same blind automatic, non-cognitive manner as the result. It is all just DaVinci mechanical lion for this generation.
 
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